Three Rivers Health District
by Tom Chillemi –
While some local festivals were canceled due to COVID-19 concerns, the Urbanna Oyster Festival is still set for Nov. 5 and 6.
At its Oct. 14 meeting, the Urbanna Town Council heard from Dr. Richard Williams, director of the Three Rivers Health District, who said cases have been decreasing from September. However, the “Middlesex transmission level is still high,” Dr. Williams told council.
Outbreaks are decreasing
Looking forward to the first part of November “we are going to be more improved than we are now.”
“The bottom line,” said Dr. Williams, “is that since we talked several weeks ago things are looking a lot better. There still is a lot of virus out there but the immunity picture of the state and the area looks better. You are going to have people coming (to the Urbanna Oyster Festival) from all over. So Virginia’s immunities statistics are really important. Virginia is one of the most vaccinated and probably has the highest immunity of any state in the south.”
He added, the Delta Variant will persist for the coming months.
Vaccination status
“One thing you need to look at for risk in the Oyster Festival are the parameters of ‘community transmission’ and the other is vaccination rates,” said Dr. Williams. In Middlesex we’re not doing that bad. We have about 63% of the population that has had at least one dose of the vaccine,” said Dr. Williams. “There is a lot of virus out there but there are also a fair number of people who have been vaccinated.”
He added there are those who have had COVID-19 and “have some level of immunity from natural infection.”
Regarding the vaccine, Dr. Williams said, “Much has been made over the ability of the vaccine to keep people out of the hospital and keep them from developing serious infection. The vaccine also has some protection against getting COVID-19 to begin with, which is another point to remember for a big outdoor festival like you guys are planning on having. “The unvaccinated population develops COVID-19 at a rate 13 times that of fully vaccinated people.”
Suggestions
Councilor Larry Chowning said the Urbanna Oyster Festival is “pretty congested” and asked Dr. Williams for suggestions to use during the festival.
Dr. Williams offered his personal suggestions and what he would do if he were coming to the festival. “If you are inside the added protection of a mask will reduce some exhaled virus. Someone with Delta (variant of COVID-19) does exhale a lot of virus.”
There is a much higher risk of contracting Delta, Dr. Williams pointed out. “Carry your mask with you. If you get in close quarters consider using it and if you get indoors consider using it. For the most part hopefully you folks can enjoy this without being encumbered by a mask,” he said.
Cause and effect
Mayor Barbara Hartley asked if outdoor events such as the State Fair have resulted in outbreaks.
Dr. Williams said that there have been several large outdoor gatherings this fall, such as football games with people talking loudly in the state and across the nation.
“Some of that has been in the pretty recent past and there’s a lag between exposure and expression of the disease. We are still watching (the data) carefully and I’m not ready to say none of those things (large events) is going to produce a lot of disease.”
Dr. Williams referred to the Sturgis motorcycle rally that occurred in South Dakota this summer. “There was a six-fold increase in COVID-19 in South Dakota after that.”
However, Dr. Williams noted that the fall football season is several weeks old and there have been a lot of outdoor events with people talking loudly. “Still, across the commonwealth the cases are declining. Again, I can’t tell you those things aren’t substantially risky.”
The results, if any, from those events won’t be seen for a time. “There could be outbreaks traced to those events but thus far we haven’t seen it,” said Dr. Williams. “We have got to watch it (the virus) very carefully and treat this thing with respect, and try to reduce our exposure as much as possible.”
